How much value your car really loses over the years

Why cars lose value — and how the curve runs

A car is a consumable good, and its value falls as soon as it is used. There's no single reason: technology ages and wears out, newer models with better equipment, more economical engines and more up-to-date software push in, every kilometre driven uses up service life, and the new-car premium — warranty, first ownership, flawless condition — evaporates with the first registration. All of that together produces depreciation, and it is by far the biggest cost block in owning a car, usually more expensive than fuel, insurance and maintenance combined.

What matters is not just that a car loses value, but how unevenly. The loss is steepest in the first year and flattens out steadily after that. Registration alone costs noticeably: a vehicle that has been first registered is, legally and in the mind of the market, a used car — even if it has run zero kilometres. In the first twelve months, the first owner carries the biggest chunk. After that the car keeps losing value, but less dramatically each year — the curve flattens, because the percentage drop applies to an ever-smaller base.

This is exactly where the often-cited sweet spot for buyers comes from: a vehicle that is already a few years old has put the steepest part of the curve behind it. The first owner has carried the biggest depreciation; the future loss you take on as the second buyer is flatter. That's why well-kept cars of a middling age often offer a particularly good ratio of remaining substance to price — provided the individual car really is sound, which has nothing to do with its position on the curve.

The following table shows typical ballpark figures for the remaining residual value by vehicle age, expressed as a rough share of the original new price.

The percentages in this table are deliberately framed as a range, not as exact figures. A sought-after model with a tight used-car supply can still be well above half after five years, while a vehicle with a high new price and weak resale demand can be below that after just three. Anyone who wants to know where a specific car stands doesn't rely on the table alone, but cross-checks it against current market data — how to compare the market price cleanly is a topic in its own right and is described in detail in the guide on comparing the market price.

What drives depreciation

The curve from the first section is an average. How steeply it actually runs for a particular vehicle is decided by several factors that shift the entire model curve up or down. Knowing them lets you estimate, when buying, how much value the car will still shed in future — and, when selling, why your own car stands better or worse than expected.

Brand, model and demand are the strongest lever on the steepness of the curve. A model with a good reputation, broad workshop coverage, cheap spare parts and a stable following holds its value far better than a vehicle with a high new price but weak resale demand. The model cycle plays in too: if a generation change or a facelift is coming, the still-current predecessor generation falls faster, because the market is already eyeing the new one. Special editions and rare, sought-after variants, by contrast, can slow the loss.

Mileage works not linearly but in thresholds. Round marks like 100,000 or 150,000 kilometres cost more at sale than the one extra kilometre before them would justify — psychological limits at which buyers revise the price downwards. More important than the raw odometer reading, though, is plausibility: a high-mileage car with a complete history often stands better in value than a low-mileage one whose kilometres don't match the age and the wear pattern. An odometer reading that doesn't add up is a warning sign — more on that in the final section.

Fuel type now shifts curves considerably, because the market is in flux. Diesel models of certain build years suffer from local driving bans and low-emission zones, which specifically pushes down the residual value in affected regions; at the same time, economical diesels in the long-distance segment continue to hold their value reasonably well. With electric cars the picture is especially murky: rapidly falling new prices, government subsidies in flux and the central question of battery health often make depreciation steeper and harder to predict than for combustion engines.

Equipment, colour and condition fine-tune where a vehicle lands within its model curve. Broadly in-demand equipment such as an automatic gearbox, air conditioning, driver-assistance systems or a navigation system props up the residual value, while exotic extras return almost nothing. Discreet, marketable colours sell faster and dearer than unusual shades, even with flawless technology. And condition together with history — a complete service booklet, no repaired accident damage, well-kept substance — is ultimately the factor that can pull two equally old cars of the same model apart by substantial amounts. Which of these factors you can assess yourself and which need measuring instruments is set out in detail in the guide on determining a car's value.

How to minimise depreciation

Depreciation can't be switched off, but it can be slowed considerably — through choices at purchase and through behaviour during the ownership period. The biggest lever lies in the buying decision itself: why a young used car rather than a new one sidesteps the steepest part of the curve was already explained above. What matters is what you can still influence within that choice.

In choosing the model, you decide the future steepness of your own curve. A vehicle with stable demand, a common engine, widespread equipment and a market-standard colour later sells more easily and dearer than an exotic configuration that may be appealing at purchase but narrows the pool of buyers at resale. Anyone who thinks about the sale already when buying deliberately picks the easily resold car — not the one with the rarest optional equipment.

During the ownership period, what counts most is preserving the substance and being able to prove it. A complete service booklet with on-schedule inspections is hard cash at sale, because it gives the next buyer the confidence they would otherwise buy through a price discount. That includes fixing wear early rather than letting damage pile up, not ignoring rust, treating the car with care and keeping the kilometres within reason. And on timing the sale, it helps to know the curve: just below a round kilometre mark and before an upcoming model change, your vehicle stands better than shortly after. None of these points turns the car into a store of value — but together they keep your car in the upper field of its model curve rather than the lower one.

Why a good position on the curve says nothing about the substance

Here lies the crucial fallacy this table is meant to warn against: where a model sits on the depreciation curve is a statistical statement about the average — it says nothing about the state of the one vehicle standing in front of you. Two cars of the same model, same build year, same mileage, can lie at the same point on the curve and still be worth completely different amounts: one has a neatly repaired write-off in its past, the other a complete history. The table doesn't know this difference. It works with the statistical model specimen, not the specific one.

That's why a good position on the curve is only half the truth. Whether an individual car is worth its money is decided by findings that appear neither in the age nor in the odometer and that you can't see in photos. Concretely, these are the points where substance parts ways with façade: a paint-thickness measured evenly all round reveals whether the car was repainted or a prior damage was covered up. The fault memory read out via OBD shows stored or intermittent faults in engine, transmission and assistance control units that stay invisible in a visual inspection. A look at the underbody and load-bearing parts uncovers rust that decides road safety and repair costs on a completely different scale than a dent. And with electric cars, battery health — the state of health, meaning the remaining capacity compared to when new — is the single most expensive value factor of all, one that can be read off neither the build year nor the mileage. The plausibility of the odometer reading belongs here too: if the reading doesn't match the wear pattern and the history, tampering is on the table, throwing the whole price out of the window.

This is exactly the gap that the independent on-site check from checkdenwagen closes. Instead of relying on age, odometer and listing photos, a neutral inspector comes straight to the vehicle — wherever it is — and checks over 100 points: paint-thickness all round, fault memory, underbody and suspension on the lift, and, for EVs, battery health. You get the report with all findings within 24 hours; the on-site appointment takes approx. 1.5 hours. The Standard Check costs from €289 incl. VAT and travel. The Premium Check from €339 incl. VAT and travel additionally delivers a repair-cost calculation for the documented defects — so that you know not only where the model sits on the curve, but what exactly this particular car is really worth.